Market Wire Update: Cable and Cad Momentum Test

After a relative flat Asian trading session, the major currencies started the European shift looking very bearish, as crude oil and S&P equity futures broke below the intra-day support areas of the last few trading sessions. Crude oil broke free from the $74.00 area, while S&P futures cleared the 1020-1025 range; both areas that has kept them from moving anywhere importantly over the last few sessions. Crude oil and the futures market are known to have a substantial influence over forex valuations, so these declines are likely to be reflected in the price of the major pairs dropping against the dollar.
If the downtrend continues in equity and oil trade, the pairs with the biggest downside potential are the cable (Gbp/Usd) and the cad (Usd/Cad).
The pound’s outlook has shifted to the downside due to the uncertainty stirred by the Bank of England’s indecision on how the economy will stabilize, especially after it unexpectedly increased the size of its asset purchase program. Sentiment shifted to bearish after the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) minutes showed that some members were looking for a bigger increase in the quantative easing program that was designed to free up available credit in the U.K. commercial markets.
Following the MPC release last week, the pound is now trading at multi-weeks low against the other two major European currencies, the Eur and Chf, something that adds to the downbeat outlook.
The cad (Usd/Cad) is likely to be pulled higher fundamentally by its high correlation with crude oil, and technically because of being oversold on the higher time-frames, and having a near-term momentum swing change in place. Global equity and commodity markets will have the opportunity to retrace some of the recent gains and shift from the overbought state that has been seen over the last few trading sessions.
Once a pull-back to support is in place the global markets will be able to more easily continue their uptrend once again, as the global recovery theme adds upside pressure to the market’s valuation of risk. However, September is historically a period that has to have equity moves banked and stops pulled up; it is Wall Street’s least productive month of the year, especially in the second half of the month, and has no more than a 50/50 chance of showing gains.