Daily Forex Technicals

The Greenback ended the past week mixed against major currencies trading in a range bound, lower against the Aussie, Kiwi and Yen but higher against Lonnie and Cable which was the weakest currency versus majors loosing 1.4% against the dollar, while Euro & Swiss franc was almost unchanged , falling 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Crude Oil remained trading above $70 per barrel after reaching $75 earlier in the week, meanwhile U.S. stocks closed at its highest levels in 2009 with Standard and Poor’s 500 Index advancing 0.3% to 1,028.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 9,544.20, and Nasdaq increased by 0.4% to 2,028.77.
Economic data released last week is giving more evidence of economic recovery. From the Euro Zone, Confidence rose in economic, consumer, services and industrial sectors. In Germany the biggest economy in the Euro Zone IFO business climate rose to 90.5, Gfk consumer confidence rose to 3.7. Meanwhile UK second quarter GDP was revised slightly upwards QoQ to shrink by 0.7%. Japanese unemployment rose more the expected to 5.7%. The better news came from the U.S. with second quarter GDP left unrevised at -1.0% where expectations were to contract further by 1.4%. Durable goods rose 4.9% in July which was much higher than expected, and new home sales rose to 433,000 in July.
This week is expected to be more exiting and probably a break out from the recent ranges could be seen. The main event risk for the US Dollar is on Wednesday, where the Fed’s last meeting minutes will be released. On Thursday the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to rise to 11 months high of 48.0 in Aug and Friday could be volatile with the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is expected to have its smallest drop in a year.
Away from the US, we have two central banks meetings, the ECB and RBA. Both banks are expected to keep rates unchanged at 1% and 3%. From ECB focus will be on Trichet’s comments on recent economic data and ECB’s covered bond purchase program. RBA Focus will be on any affirmation on markets view that the easing cycle is already over and RBA could be the first to remove policy accommodations.